When COP29 concluded in Baku in 2024, negotiators finally delivered the long-awaited rulebook for Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, the architecture that governs how countries cooperate to tackle climate change. For the carbon dioxide removal (CDR) sector, this was more than a policy milestone. It marked the moment when removals began to shift from an experimental add-on to essential climate infrastructure.
COP30, hosted in Belém in Brazil, was meant to be the implementation summit – when the new rulebook would start to translate into functioning markets and aligned expectations across countries, companies and investors. And while COP30 did not deliver uniform progress, it did provide an unmistakable message: the structures for global carbon markets are forming and there’s momentum going into 2026 – but integrity, financing and policy challenges remain.
What emerged in Belém was a landscape where compliance markets are beginning to coordinate, voluntary markets are gaining clearer government anchor points, and durable removals are slowly entering the mainstream of national planning – even after the Article 6.4 crediting mechanism hit early turbulence.
From Rulemaking to Reality
If the Article 6 rulebook agreed in Baku closed a decade of negotiation, Belém revealed how challenging it will be to turn those rules into operating international carbon markets.
Countries continued advancing Article 6.2, the framework for bilateral cooperation and the creation of internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs). But there was limited substantive new guidance.
The first technical reviews under Article 6.2 have been completed – for Ghana, Guyana, Suriname, Switzerland, Thailand and Vanuatu – and discussions at COP30 centered on how much additional transparency and technical detail countries should be required to provide through the reporting and review process.
That conversation was driven in part by the fact that several Article 6.2 trades assessed by the UN’s technical reviewers were flagged for reporting inconsistencies, underscoring how fragile the market’s early-stage foundations remain.
The intent is integrity, but the risk is paralysis. Unless reporting systems strengthen quickly, the mechanism designed to accelerate cooperation risks slowing it down. Policymakers face the challenge of balancing rigor with pragmatism.
Still, the Norway–Switzerland durable CDR transfer agreement earlier in 2025 continues to serve as a blueprint for how Article 6.2 can deliver credible, cross-border trades, and Belém reinforced that early movers will shape the norms that follow.
For Article 6.4, there were negotiations on baseline rules – including the recently approved permanence standard, for example – with several countries arguing that the draft risked being too stringent for certain project types. The debate underscored how central baseline ambition and integrity will be to the mechanism’s credibility.
Article 6.4 negotiations matter far beyond the UN mechanism. They are shaping the North Star for carbon-credit quality – a trajectory that voluntary market standards and buyers will inevitably align themselves with.
Corporate CDR buyers, project developers, ratings agencies, standard-setting bodies and more will be closely watching the evolution of the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism, which has the potential to significantly boost confidence in carbon markets.
Countries also agreed to give carbon projects under the Kyoto-era Clean Development Mechanism an extra six months to transition into the new Article 6.4 crediting system. The extension was granted because the 6.4 mechanism is not yet fully operational – from funding to methodologies – and negotiators recognized that projects could not migrate smoothly without additional time.
Compliance Markets Step Into Coordination Mode
Another notable shift at COP30 was the move toward structured cooperation among national and regional compliance markets – a longstanding gap in global climate governance.
For buyers, this matters because aligned compliance markets create predictable signals about which credits, removals and methodologies are likely to remain acceptable as standards converge. For policymakers, it reflects a broader recognition that fragmented carbon prices will not deliver global ambition.
There were several other noteworthy carbon market developments:
- The Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets was established to bring together governments committed to stronger integrity, ambition and interoperability across national carbon-pricing systems.
- The Coalition to Grow Carbon Markets launched a set of shared principles to bolster corporate demand for high-integrity carbon credits.
- A group of countries launched the Article 6 Ambition Alliance, which seeks to close the gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the temperature goals under the Paris Agreement.
- The Greenhouse Gas Protocol and ISO unveiled a joint plan to align their carbon-accounting frameworks.
Durable removals continue their shift toward the center
Just prior to the summit, the UN Environment Programme Finance Initiative issued a paper exploring the CDR landscape, identifying barriers to scaling, and offering recommendations to enhance carbon markets, mobilize finance and foster a stable demand for credits. This marks a significant shift for the UN moving from recognizing CDRs to actively exploring how to support their deployment.
COP30’s narrative reinforced that durable CDRs – direct air capture (DAC), BECCS, geological sequestration – are no longer optional innovations but strategic infrastructure.
Yet despite conceptual progress, supply remains limited, and financing gaps remain. This amplifies the need for blended finance, public guarantees and long-term offtake commitments to de-risk early projects.
What COP30 Means for Carbon Removal Credit Buyers and Policymakers
COP30 did not resolve every question, but it provided important clarity for the actors that will shape market growth over the next decade.
- Expect Article 6 integrity expectations to influence voluntary markets. COP30 made it clear that governments are aligning around stronger, more transparent rules.
- Durable CDRs will command strategic value. As more countries formalize removals in their NDCs and cooperation agreements, buyers who secure long-term offtakes will be ahead of the curve.
- Market design is becoming a shared exercise, through coalitions, integration initiatives and early Article 6 trades.
- Coordination is accelerating. COP30 showed that countries are beginning to orient their systems toward compatibility, not isolation.
A New Phase: From Possibility to Performance
Belém did not offer the triumphant launch of global carbon markets many hoped for. But it did show that the world is moving – slowly and sometimes unevenly – toward a more integrated carbon-market landscape.
Durable removals have moved into strategic focus. Compliance markets are beginning to coordinate. Voluntary markets are gaining clearer guardrails. And the tensions between ambition and integrity are coming fully into view.
The rulebook is written, the coalitions are forming, and the pilots are working. What COP30 made clear is that the next decade of climate action will be defined not by the existence of carbon markets, but by their credibility, scale and ability to deliver real, measurable and lasting climate impact.
For more on this subject, check out our previous COP30 blog post.
12.10.25