By Richard Stubbe, Senior Carbon Editor at Quantum Commodity Intelligence
This article first appeared in Quantum Commodity Intelligence
The world has become a riskier place in the year since the Drax Group subsidiary Elimini launched to advance biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), Ross McKenzie, Elimini's executive vice president, told Quantum.
The longer term still looks promising, McKenzie said, even as the political instability in the wake of the election of US President Donald Trump and the continuing Russia-Ukraine conflict have altered risk assessments for Elimini and other companies, adding to traditional risks like weather and financing.
"It's remarkable how much the world has changed in the year since we launched, politically and economically", McKenzie said. "One of the things that's become fascinating is just how much that political instability has translated into cost of capital".
Waiting for stability isn't an option for Elimini's multibillion-dollar projects, which typically plan runs of at least 25 years, McKenzie said.
"If the fundamentals of the market are there, and you aren't going to be absolutely cut off at the knees by the political risk, you've got to take a bit of a proportionality test", he said. "Are the fundamentals of the market there? Is the market going to grow? Is what you're producing valued?"
If those answers are yes, then taking the risk makes more sense, he said, and the versatility of biomass makes that easier.
"Whether it's BECCS or whether it's sustainable aviation fuel or whether it's biochar, one of our risk mitigation strategies is to start to look again at all those different technologies and make small bets so that we can back winners in every area so that we are diversified," he said.
CDR
Houston-based Elimini also expects growth in the CO2 removals (CDR) market, McKenzie said, where "you could see a much wider customer base opening up in the next four to five years", with changes benefiting CDR in both the mandated and voluntary markets.
On the voluntary side, Elimini is working with the Science Based Targets Initiative to establish CDR targets under that programme, giving businesses an incentive to invest in those projects.
On the compliance side, McKenzie said, "I think you're going to see a proposal coming out this year from the EU to include carbon removals in the EU ETS, which will be a bit of paving the way for California and the other trade markets" to follow suit.
At its launch, Elimini said demand for carbon credits is set to increase to 2.6 gigatonnes by 2030, becoming a $1 trillion market by 2050, and after the firm's first year, McKenzie said Elimini is still expecting big numbers to happen.
"How many other markets are there where the entire scientific world, the United Nations, most governments and political views are telling you this needs to be trillions of dollars worth of the market in order for us to actually continue to live on planet Earth?" he said.
"It's about as solid a long-term market as you could possibly get, so it's an exciting opportunity."
The Quantum View: 2025 hasn't gone as hoped for the emissions reduction business in the US; however, much of the rest of the world is still moving to cut carbon, and biomass appears poised to contribute on multiple fronts. That would be good news for Elimini and other developers in the space.
10/8/25