By Laurie Fitzmaurice, President
Republished with permission from Carbon Pulse.
Fitzmaurice gave the keynote speech on May 21, 2025, at the Carbon Unbound 2025 conference. This is a summary of her remarks.
This year’s Carbon Unbound theme was “Accelerating Gigaton-Scale Carbon Dioxide Removal,” which is especially relevant as we face twin crises:
First, the planet is getting progressively hotter as a direct result of greenhouse gas emissions. According to the World Meteorological Organization, the last ten years were the warmest on record. Twenty-twenty-four was the hottest year ever, ushering in the potential for more extreme weather events, widespread agricultural failures, collapsing arctic ice sheets and other calamities.
Second, projected demand for power – particularly from the data centers underpinning AI – is extending our dependence on carbon-intensive fossil fuels like coal. In fact, over the next five years AI demand will cause a cumulative 1.3 to 1.7 gigatons of additional CO2 emissions, according to projections from International Monetary Fund .
The social cost of these extra emissions is estimated to range from $50.7 billion to $66.3 billion, manifesting through storm damage, drought, ecosystem alterations, and human health impacts that directly affect our communities and our planet.
This is in addition to the already devastating trajectory of global warming. Just last year, Hurricane Helene, amplified by unseasonably warm oceans, went on to cause over $79 billion of damage while claiming at least 249 lives. Wildfires in Los Angeles fueled by drought and 100 mile-per-hour wind gusts consumed 57,000 acres, destroying 18,000 homes and structures before they could be extinguished.
While many Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies are gaining traction, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) had a breakout year in 2024, and that momentum has continued into 2025. Let’s take a closer look at the inroads BECCS has made and the key learnings we can apply to help the CDR industry reach its full potential.
BECCS is dominating the VCM
BECCS is a technology that produces 24/7 renewable power while permanently removing CO2 from the atmosphere by combining a biomass powerplant, a carbon capture plant, and technology to transport and store CO2 deep underground.
In 2024, BECCS dominated the voluntary carbon market (VCM), experiencing an 84 percent increase in volume while transactions were up by 156 percent year-over-year.
Last month, Microsoft made the largest CDR purchase of all time with Fidelis for a massive 6.75 million tons of carbon, to be generated via BECCS. And this came on the heels of another purchase Microsoft made for 3.7 million tons of CO2 tied to pulp and paper carbon removals.
Major purchases from industry leaders help to validate the carbon removal technology and indicate to other potential buyers that they need to act now, which can help spur adoption and lift the market. We know from studying the 2024 VCM that the total volume of engineered removals was up 66 percent year-over-year, but this took place in a smaller number of higher-volume deals. As a result, the carbon removal technologies that will have the greatest opportunity to scale – at least for the foreseeable future – will be those that appeal to these large-scale customers.
Beyond BECCS, other biogenic solutions like biochar are also performing well. The biochar market was valued at $2.2 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to $3.9 billion by 2032.
What can the industry learn from BECCS’ success?
This data shows us the market is increasingly willing to pay a premium for credits from engineered carbon removals that can measure impact while guaranteeing permanence. Customers are willing to make those larger purchases when they trust the technology and the supplier.
At the same time, the market also prefers realistic solutions. For example, direct air capture (DAC) also delivers engineered removals that offer the same permanence. While DAC is also a vital piece of the puzzle that has historically appealed to buyers, BECCS uniquely offers:
- Greater efficiency. Instead of only consuming electricity to operate, BECCS produces reliable, renewable power.
- Multiple revenue streams. The renewable power BECCS generates can be sold to the grid or directly to companies, which helps BECCS deliver carbon removals to customers at a more attractive price point.
- More than one benefit. Electricity generation also gives BECCS another avenue to appeal to stakeholders – so it’s less dependent on CCS sentiment alone.
If we take a closer look at successful BECCS projects to date, there are additional learnings we can glean:
- A supportive policy environment is essential. This includes government support to address price and volume risk. Examples include Stockholm Exergi’s deal where they followed a reverse auction successfully, or US projects that can tap into Section 45Q of the IRA.
- Infrastructure and regulation is needed to support all stages of the project. For BECCS, this means coverage from the sourcing of sustainable biomass, to power generation, to the capture and geologic storage of CO2.
- Community support is just as critical. This is why Elimini engages early to identify how we can remove carbon for good, not just permanently, but so that we share in the benefits.
- There are clear benefits of offtake agreements that are structured to be similar to power purchase agreements in tenor and duration. They help to take away volume risk from developers and stimulate project finance on favorable terms.
- Carbon removals should be co-claimable between the host country and private sector buyers. A great example of this is Orsted’s BECCS project with the Danish government claiming against Nationally Determined Contributions and Microsoft claiming against its corporate footprint.
What other ingredients can help carbon removals scale?
Beyond BECCS, what can we do to increase demand for carbon removals while ensuring CDR supply can meet that demand?
Starting with demand, there are a handful of immediate opportunities.
One of the biggest ones – The Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) recently released a draft of its revised net zero standards, which opens an opportunity for SBTi to mandate carbon removal targets for at least scope 1 emissions.
This could serve as a gateway to the mainstream adoption of CDRs by incentivizing the 7,000-plus organizations that have set science-based targets through SBTi to enter the VCM. It also sends a clear message that the industry can proactively set and adhere to its own standards without the need for government-instituted compliance.
More than that, reaching mandatory targets is now more achievable and affordable than ever. This is particularly true for scope 1 emissions, which offer a more practical milestone than scope 3 targets.
Beyond SBTi, there are additional opportunities to meet customers where they’re at today. Elimini has heard from buyers that they want to reduce their investment risk by:
- Diversifying their CDR portfolios. Making a major purchase tied to one technology or project requires a significant amount of due diligence to understand the risks associated with that investment. By spreading investments across several technologies, that risk is distributed and customers are thus less obligated to become deep experts in a given technology before purchasing.
- Working with seasoned developers. One of the most significant questions a potential CDR buyer must ask is if they believe the developer can deliver the project on time and within budget. Experienced developers with a track record of building large-scale projects have an advantage that can boost a customer’s confidence in their CDR purchase.
- Requesting greater pricing transparency. Customers want to know that they’re getting a fair deal, and that’s easier to do if they can benchmark against similar deals that are already taking place. Interestingly, Elimini has seen a trend in 2025 where fewer CDR deals are disclosing price, so it remains to be seen if the market will come around or not.
On the supply side of the equation, some organizations fall into the trap of thinking they can simply wait to purchase carbon removals until they’re closer to the target date for their climate commitments. However, if projects don’t begin to build now, there won’t be enough high integrity credits available for organizations to purchase when they need them most. While CDR mandates from SBTi would be a helpful step in the right direction, the industry must educate potential buyers about the advantages that come with purchasing now – as well as the risks if they hold off.
While the level of projected demand in the US remains appealing even with these added risks, the right government support can boost developer confidence and even expedite project timelines. As an example, the White House released a statement on Earth Day last month where the Trump administration signaled its support for carbon capture and storage technology as part of its broader initiative to “[produce] the cleanest energy in the world” while “creating American jobs.” Consistent positive signals backed by policy can make a world of difference in attracting investment to the US, as opposed to the other countries competing for those projects.
In that same vein, by keeping incentives like Section 45Q in the IRA intact – or even uplifting them – the United States can remain competitive in what is slated to become more than a one trillion dollar market opportunity by 2050. And while all solutions are needed to achieve climate goals, some technologies are better suited to adapting to varying political environments, and those will have the greatest potential to scale.
As we take the time to recognize, celebrate, and learn from our collective wins, we’ll discover where to refine our approach – and where we need to double down – to help the carbon removals industry reverse the devastation caused by legacy emissions at scale while unlocking value for our organizations, our stakeholders, and our communities.
Any opinions expressed in this commentary reflect the views of the authors and not of Carbon Pulse.
5/27/2025